Mesoscale Discussion 0336
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0343 PM CDT Sat Apr 11 2020

   Areas affected...Central/Eastern KS...North-Central OK

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 112043Z - 112245Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Potential exists for a couple supercells capable of large
   hail and damaging wind gusts along the dryline over the next several
   hours.

   DISCUSSION...Recent surface analysis shows a dryline extending from
   near the NE/IA/MO border intersection southwestward through
   south-central KS and northwest OK into the TX Panhandle. Visible
   satellite imagery shows mostly clear skies across much of
   central/eastern KS and north-central OK. Convective initiation
   recently occurred over north-central OK along this dryline, which
   may be a sign of things to come as the front continues eastward and
   strong moisture advection persists across the region. This moisture
   advection should help offset the effects of boundary-layer mixing
   somewhat, resulting in little to no CINH as the dryline moves
   through. 

   Given the amount of dry air aloft, updrafts may initially struggle
   but steep mid-level lapse rates (and resulting strong buoyancy) and
   increasing vertical shear should compensate somewhat, resulting in
   the potential for a couple supercells. Primary threat will be large
   hail but damaging downburst winds also seem probable with any more
   robust updrafts. Storm coverage is expected to remain isolated,
   preclude higher watch probability, but trends will be monitored
   closely.

   ..Mosier/Grams.. 04/11/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN...DDC...

   LAT...LON   36719882 37649767 39289610 39019506 37299551 36459638
               35949725 35769825 35989869 36719882