Mesoscale Discussion 0337
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0535 PM CDT Sat Apr 11 2020

   Areas affected...central/southeast Texas

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 112235Z - 120030Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Isolated convection in the region is in a favorable
   environment for supercell development.  Convective trends are being
   monitored.

   DISCUSSION...Recent satellite/radar imagery indicates the presence
   of deepening convection mainly near Milam County, Texas, with other
   updrafts just to the west (nearer I-35) and another one cell over
   Harris County.  These storms are likely resulting from subtle
   low-level confluence amidst moderately unstable and weakly capped
   thermodynamic profiles.  Southeasterly low-level flow will maintain
   near 70F dewpoints in that region while also maintaining sufficient
   low-layer shear (350 m2/s2 0-3km SRH) and deep shear (45-55 kts) for
   organization and updraft rotation.

   The overall scenario supports maintainence of isolated convection in
   this region through sunset at least - with an isolated tornado or
   damaging wind threat with any organized storm given the environment.
   The isolated nature of the threat should preclude a WW issuance,
   though convective trends will continue to be monitored.

   ..Cook/Hart.. 04/11/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...HGX...FWD...EWX...

   LAT...LON   31489729 31619651 31339591 30699536 30029528 29589586
               29739747 30009783 30209789 30909779 31339748 31489729