Mesoscale Discussion 0345
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0137 AM CDT Sun Apr 12 2020

   Areas affected...Edwards Plateau/Hill Country through much of
   central Texas

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

   Valid 120637Z - 120830Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

   SUMMARY...A new severe weather watch likely will be needed for a
   large part of central Texas, where an increasingly organized severe
   convective system may gradually evolve through 4-6 AM CDT.

   DISCUSSION...The leading edge of stronger mid-level cooling,
   associated with the approaching significant mid-level short wave
   trough, may be contributing to the ongoing evolving line of
   strong/severe storms along the dryline, now extending from west of
   Snyder through just east of Fort Stockton.  Additional new vigorous
   thunderstorm development continues to occur ahead of this line,
   across much of the Edwards Plateau vicinity, probably in response to
   forcing for ascent associated with at least one in a series of speed
   maxima within strong southwesterly mid/upper flow across northern
   Mexico through much of Texas.  It is this latter activity which
   seems likely to become more prominent over the course of the next
   few hours, aided by lift associated with lower/mid tropospheric warm
   advection, just to the north of warmer and more strongly capping
   elevated mixed-layer air.

   This inhibition was too strong for the earlier isolated supercell
   crossing the Rio Grande River to be maintained, and it now appears
   that the primary convective development through daybreak may occur
   near and north of northern portions of Tornado Watch 102.  Supported
   by inflow of air characterized by moderately large CAPE, in the
   presence of strong deep-layer shear, this may include an upscale
   growing and increasingly organized convective system, accompanied by
   potential for strong surface gusts, along with a risk for a couple
   of tornadoes.

   ..Kerr/Thompson.. 04/12/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...HGX...FWD...EWX...SJT...MAF...

   LAT...LON   30630187 32499986 32619733 30699609 29619895 29000058
               29510121 29860163 30630187