Mesoscale Discussion 0348
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0718 AM CDT Sun Apr 12 2020

   Areas affected...Parts of northeast Texas into northern Louisiana
   and adjacent portions of southern Arkansas

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 105...

   Valid 121218Z - 121345Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 105 continues.

   SUMMARY...Potential for severe wind gusts and a few tornadoes
   probably will  increase with an increasingly organized mesoscale
   convective system spreading into and across the Shreveport LA area
   by 9-10 AM CDT.

   DISCUSSION...The evolution of an increasingly organized mesoscale
   convective system continues.  This still appears to coincide with a
   corridor of enhanced lower/mid tropospheric warm advection, to the
   north of warmer and more strongly capping elevated mixed-layer air,
   and just ahead of a 50-70 kt westerly 500 mb speed maximum
   propagating toward the lower Mississippi Valley.

   Although the boundary layer currently remains cooler and drier
   downstream, across much of Louisiana into the Ark-La-Tex, increases
   in surface dew points already appear underway, and more substantive
   boundary-layer warming and destabilization probably will commence
   with daybreak.  

   At least a couple of severe gusts have already been recorded by ASOS
   at Waco and Corsicana with the primary ongoing bowing segment in
   radar reflectivities, which is on track to reach the Shreveport LA
   by 14-15Z.  With the latest Rapid Refresh suggesting southerly 850
   mb flow in the process of strengthening to 40-50 kt across the upper
   Texas coastal plain into the lower Mississippi Valley, the potential
   for severe wind gusts should continue to increase given
   boundary-layer destabilization.  Coupled with a strengthening
   convective cold pool, the potential for a few tornadoes with
   intensifying mesovortices along the gust front may also increase
   through mid to late morning.

   ..Kerr.. 04/12/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...JAN...SHV...HGX...FWD...

   LAT...LON   31719750 33279463 32959192 32329076 31719228 31489417
               30529677 31719750