Mesoscale Discussion 0353
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0102 PM CDT Sun Apr 12 2020

   Areas affected...Portions of southern LA/MS

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 121802Z - 122000Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

   SUMMARY...Severe threat, including the potential for large hail,
   damaging winds, and isolated tornadoes, may continue to increase
   this afternoon. Watch issuance is possible.

   DISCUSSION...Storms have recently begun to increase in both coverage
   and intensity across parts of southern LA along a pre-frontal
   confluence axis. Although this region is displaced somewhat south of
   the best mid-level forcing, a strong low-level jet does reside over
   this area per recent VWP estimates from KLIX. A very moist and
   unstable airmass is present across much of southern LA, with surface
   temperatures having warmed into the low to mid 80s and dewpoints in
   the low 70s. Resultant MLCAPE of 2000-3000 J/kg in the presence of
   strong effective bulk shear in excess of 60 kt will easily support
   supercells. Isolated instances of large hail and damaging winds
   could occur if any of these storms can be maintained. A couple
   tornadoes also cannot be ruled out with 0-1 km SRH around 300-350
   m2/s2. At this point, there remains some uncertainty regarding
   overall storm coverage and the presence of a modest low-level
   inversion. If storms continue to increase in coverage/intensity over
   the next couple of hours, then a watch would be needed.

   ..Grams/Gleason.. 04/12/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...MOB...JAN...LIX...LCH...

   LAT...LON   30389197 30909159 31439090 31468969 31128921 29988930
               29859115 29909180 30389197