Mesoscale Discussion 0354
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0110 PM CDT Sun Apr 12 2020

   Areas affected...Eastern Oklahoma and northeast Texas

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 121810Z - 121945Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

   SUMMARY...Storm development is expected in the next 1 to 2 hours. A
   watch is possible.

   DISCUSSION...The airmass across northeast Texas and southern
   Oklahoma has destabilized in the last 1 to 2 hours in the wake of a
   morning MCS. MLCAPE has increased to 750 to 1250 J/kg per SPC
   mesoanalysis. Some additional destabilization is expected in the
   next hour or so before storm coverage quickly expands in the next 1
   to 2 hours ahead of the approaching upper trough. Storm intensity
   will likely be somewhat muted due to airmass contamination from the
   earlier convection, but some strong to severe storms are possible. 

   A cold front is moving quickly across western Oklahoma and may be
   the trigger for a few storms, but the fast speed may cut off
   updrafts from the more unstable airmass before they can become
   better rooted along the cold front. Therefore, the better threat for
   strong to severe storms will likely be with storms that form ahead
   of this front in eastern Oklahoma and northwest Texas. Boundary
   layer cumulus have started to form in this area and SPC mesoanalysis
   indicates CINH is mostly eroded indicating storm development is
   likely imminent. 

   The primary threat from these storms will initially be large hail
   and damaging winds. There is considerable low-level turning in the
   TLX VWP, but low-level flow is quite weak (Less than 20 kts) which
   will be a limiting factor to more than a brief weak tornado.
   However, the low-level flow is expected to increase to 35-40 knots
   after 22Z in southeast OK/NE TX which may lead to a greater tornado
   threat early this evening in that region. 

   A watch may be needed, but it is unclear if storm intensity will be
   strong enough to warrant a watch, especially prior to the increasing
   low-level flow.

   ..Bentley.. 04/12/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...

   LAT...LON   34009829 35529743 36199653 36819560 36839495 36429463
               35639453 34419444 33729450 32859468 32169571 32489679
               33469787 34009829