Mesoscale Discussion 0376
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0139 AM CDT Mon Apr 13 2020

   Areas affected...Parts of southern/eastern Georgia into the piedmont
   of the Carolinas

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

   Valid 130639Z - 130815Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

   SUMMARY...A vigorous squall line with potential to produce damaging
   wind gusts and a few tornadoes likely will be maintained, with some
   intensification possible, to the east of the southern Appalachians
   through 5-7 AM EDT.  A new tornado watch will likely be issued east
   of tornado watches 115 and 116 within the next hour or so.

   DISCUSSION...Models indicate that the vigorous short wave trough,
   which has pivoted into the lower Mississippi Valley, will continue
   to accelerate northeastward toward the Appalachians through
   daybreak.  As it does, it may become increasingly deformed, but
   associated forcing for ascent likely will maintain the ongoing
   pre-frontal squall line.  Stronger forcing appears likely to
   overspread the piedmont of the Carolinas (and points northward)
   through 09-11Z, while becoming weaker across eastern/southern
   Georgia, toward the Gulf coast.   However, potential instability
   associated with surface dew points near 70F, probably will maintain
   vigorous convection through southeastern Georgia.  While instability
   remains weaker across the Carolinas into Virginia, low-level
   moistening is underway, and at least weak boundary-layer
   destabilization is expected to precede the arrival of the better
   upper support.

   Given strong to extreme low-level shear associated with a 50-70 kt
   southerly 850 mb jet now shifting to the lee of the Appalachians,
   the environment is expected to become conducive to the maintenance
   of the approaching squall line, with some further intensification
   possible.  This likely will be accompanied by considerable potential
   for strong, damaging surface gusts and a few embedded tornadoes.

   ..Kerr.. 04/13/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...RAH...ILM...RNK...CHS...CAE...GSP...JAX...FFC...
   TAE...

   LAT...LON   34938178 36128080 36517868 34987881 33638061 32328200
               30788404 31448471 34048250 34938178