Mesoscale Discussion 0377
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0340 AM CDT Mon Apr 13 2020

   Areas affected...Parts of central and eastern North Carolina into
   southern Virginia

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

   Valid 130840Z - 131015Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

   SUMMARY...Severe weather potential with an evolving squall line is
   expected to increase across the region through daybreak and beyond,
   accompanied by the risk for damaging wind gusts and a few tornadoes.

   DISCUSSION...The southern portion of a deepening elongated surface
   cyclone, centered over the Great Lakes, will continue to shift
   across and east of the Appalachians through 11-13Z, ahead of the
   remnants of a vigorous short wave impulse approaching the
   Appalachians.  Aided by strengthening southerly low-level flow,
   including 50-70 kt at 850 mb, moisture return is ongoing across much
   of the southern Mid Atlantic.  Surface dew points are now rising
   through the mid/upper 60s across much of central and eastern North
   Carolina, and this moisture is expected to continue to advect
   northward ahead of the evolving squall line, into much of
   southern/eastern Virginia through daybreak into mid/late morning. 
   This will contribute to boundary-layer destabilization sufficient to
   support at least the  maintenance of vigorous convection, with
   continuing intensification possible, accompanied by the the risk for
   damaging wind gusts and a few embedded tornadoes.

   ..Kerr/Thompson.. 04/13/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...RNK...CAE...

   LAT...LON   36517961 37957815 38027671 36567575 35027610 33537839
               33407953 35568004 36517961