Mesoscale Discussion 0383
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0142 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2020

   Areas affected...Portions of the Northeast

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 131842Z - 132015Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...Isolated damaging winds possible this afternoon along a
   cold front moving through the Northeast.

   DISCUSSION...A strongly forced line of convection has recently
   formed in northern PA and southern NY. MLCAPE in this region is
   250-500 J/kg per SPC mesoanalysis. Visible satellite shows some
   breaks in the clouds across eastern New York which will aid in
   destabilization through the afternoon ahead of the cold front.
   Therefore, weak instability (250-500 J/kg) is expected to persist
   ahead of this line as it moves northeast. Low-level lapse rates will
   be limited across the region which may limit a greater severe
   weather threat, but there is sufficient instability for isolated
   damaging winds along the line given the 40-50 kts of flow at 1km per
   BGM VWP. 

   Trends will continue to be monitored, and a watch may be possible if
   a more widespread wind damage threat starts to materialize.

   ..Bentley/Grams.. 04/13/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...BTV...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...BUF...
   CTP...

   LAT...LON   41237697 41887692 42577689 43417646 44137563 44187471
               43907296 43337209 41897206 41297233 40757275 40647346
               40927412 41197507 41237697