Mesoscale Discussion 0386
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0212 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2020

   Areas affected...Northeast to East Central Florida

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 141912Z - 142115Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

   SUMMARY...Isolated strong to severe storms capable of a strong wind
   gust or brief tornado possible this afternoon and evening. A weather
   watch is unlikely.

   DISCUSSION...Stronger convective cores have recently developed on
   the northern edge of a quasi stationary outflow boundary draped
   across northern Florida. This activity is likely being driven by
   weak background ascent from an embedded shortwave trough over the
   southeastern US. Temperatures in the low to mid 80s and moist
   surface conditions with dewpoints in the low to mid 70s are
   generating MLCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg. Effective shear of 35 to 40 kt
   should allow a few storms to organize into weak supercells and small
   clusters. Low-level shear, while not particularly impressive with
   0-3km SRH around 100 to 200 m2/s2 as estimated from the JAX VWP,
   should support a couple transient low-level mesocyclones. A brief
   tornado cannot be ruled out with some of the stronger storms where
   low level flow is more backed to southerly. An isolated damaging
   wind threat is also possible.

   Further to the south of the outflow boundary greater insolation is
   occurring along a sea-breeze boundary on the Atlantic coast. MLCAPE
   is slightly higher near 1500-2000 J/kg. Latest mesoanalysis shows
   the area is uncapped but limited low-level convergence along the
   seabreeze front may delay any storm initiation for another couple of
   hours. Low-level winds are weaker and any storms that develop to the
   south of the ongoing cluster will likely pose more of a wind threat.
   The isolated coverage and lack of stronger large-scale forcing
   suggests a watch is unlikely at this time.

   ..Lyons/Grams.. 04/14/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...MLB...JAX...

   LAT...LON   30148148 30158205 29978266 29578233 29248232 29088227
               29018192 28928183 28888138 28338116 28158076 28388057
               28778070 29418109 29948130 30138134 30148148