Mesoscale Discussion 0387
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0348 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2020

   Areas affected...Central/Eastern Florida Panhandle

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 142048Z - 142245Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Isolated strong to severe wind gusts or a brief
   tornado/waterspout will be possible with storms moving near and
   onshore this afternoon and evening. A weather watch is not
   anticipated.

   DISCUSSION...Echo tops of 35-40kft from the KTLH radar suggest an
   increase in intensity with a couple of the offshore cells south of
   the Florida Big Bend region. Weak upper level lift from a passing
   shortwave trough has overspread this region. Partial clearing across
   the Florida Panhandle and a seasonably moist boundary layer with
   dewpoints in the low to mid 70s are supporting MLCAPE of 1000-1500
   J/kg. This unstable airmass is overlain by effective shear of 40 kts
   sampled from regional VWPS. Mid-level mesocyclones have been
   observed with a few of the cells and environmental parameters
   support continued strengthening and maintenance of updrafts through
   this afternoon and evening. A few of the stronger storms will be
   capable of damaging wind gusts or a brief tornado as they move
   onshore and across parts of the central/eastern Florida Panhandle.
   Instability wanes farther to the north across southern Georgia.
   Limited certainty on the coverage and intensity of the severe threat
   suggests a weather watch is unlikely.

   ..Lyons/Grams.. 04/14/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...JAX...TAE...

   LAT...LON   29968573 30098574 30378530 30468479 30528442 30568371
               30478308 29768276 29548343 29958402 29658466 29518515
               29738556 29968573