Mesoscale Discussion 0389
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1234 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2020

   Areas affected...Central Florida

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 151734Z - 151900Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Isolated strong to severe storms capable of damaging wind
   gusts are possible this afternoon and evening. A weather watch is
   not anticipated.

   DISCUSSION...A line of storms forming along and south of a slow
   moving cold front across the Gulf of Mexico has recently intensified
   as it continues to move near and onshore of the western Florida
   coast. Mesoanalysis indicates 2000-2500 J/Kg of MLCAPE across
   central Florida supported by temperatures in the upper 80s and low
   90s with dewpoints in the low 70s F. Proximity RAP soundings show
   30-40 kt of effective shear driven by a slight increase in upper
   level winds associated with a weak shortwave trough. This shear
   should promote some storm organization through this afternoon.
   Mixing from strong heating across the Florida peninsula, south of
   the front, has developed sufficient DCAPE of 700-1000 J/kg. Isolated
   damaging wind gusts may occur with any of the stronger storms that
   move eastward through the afternoon. A few storms have also
   developed inland ahead of the line and may pose a marginal wind
   threat. Severe activity is expected to remain isolated and a watch
   is not anticipated at this time.

   ..Lyons/Grams.. 04/15/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...MLB...TBW...JAX...

   LAT...LON   30078132 29698199 29578246 29268299 28938310 28818282
               28008291 27888229 27948178 28148066 28408047 29398098
               29998128 30078132