Mesoscale Discussion 0391
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0323 PM CDT Thu Apr 16 2020

   Areas affected...Portions of South Central KS and Northwest OK

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 162023Z - 162230Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Isolated strong to severe storms capable of damaging wind
   gusts and marginally severe hail may develop over the next 1 to 2
   hours. A weather watch is not anticipated.

   DISCUSSION...Afternoon visible satellite shows towering cumulus
   becoming more pronounced along a surface trough/cold front running
   from south central Kansas through the Oklahoma Panhandle into the
   central Texas Panhandle. Surface analysis shows dewpoints have
   increased into the lower to middle 40s concurrent with temperatures
   in the mid to upper 70s F. Low-level convergence associated with a
   weak wave cyclone and the approaching cold front should trigger
   isolated thunderstorms by 22-23z. SBCAPE around 500 J/kg is present
   with 50-55 kt of 0-6km bulk shear. This would support storm
   organization with a couple high based supercells and clusters
   capable of producing strong wind gusts and marginally severe hail.
   Lack of greater boundary layer moisture suggests coverage will
   remain too isolated for watch issuance.

   ..Lyons/Grams.. 04/16/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...ICT...OUN...DDC...AMA...

   LAT...LON   36550018 37229958 38079926 38329729 37539682 36939694
               36219822 35989940 36090014 36550018