Mesoscale Discussion 0395
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0913 PM CDT Fri Apr 17 2020

   Areas affected...southeast Texas and southwest Louisiana

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 180213Z - 180415Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Convection is slowly beginning to increase in coverage and
   intensity across southeast Texas. Strong to severe storms may
   develop in the next 1-3 hours. A watch issuance is unlikely given
   the marginal severe risk.

   DISCUSSION...Offshore convection between Corpus Cristi and Houston
   has been ongoing for the past couple of hours, but convective
   initiation has struggled onshore. Inversions around 850 and 700 mb
   are likely inhibiting surface/mixed-layer convection and with weak
   warm air advection above these inversions not able to sustain
   elevated convection. A surface cold front is approaching from the
   northwest and is currently oriented southwest-northeast from Uvalde
   County Texas through northwest Louisiana. A low-amplitude mid-level
   shortwave trough is moving across central/north Texas and with the
   surface cold front this could help initiate convection. MLCAPE of
   500-1000 J/kg and effective bulk shear of 50-60 knots could lead to
   some organized and/or supercellular convection across far southeast
   Texas into southwest Louisiana. The main threats would be marginally
   severe hail/wind, but a weak, brief tornado cannot be ruled out with
   a surface-based storm.

   ..Nauslar/Goss.. 04/18/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...

   LAT...LON   30439506 31089452 31439359 31369281 30429253 29739275
               29089442 28539561 28439603 29059638 29869571 30439506