Mesoscale Discussion 0397
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0333 PM CDT Sat Apr 18 2020

   Areas affected...portions of southeast TX...southwest LA

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 182033Z - 182200Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will probably intensify further through the
   late afternoon.  The stronger storms will be capable of a hail
   threat.

   DISCUSSION...Radar imagery shows strengthening thunderstorm cores
   across parts of southeast TX and the near-shore waters of southern
   LA.  Widespread cloud cover has limited surface heating but
   temperatures range from the upper 60s F in TX to the west of I-45 to
   around 80 F near the Sabine River.  Low-level easterlies veering to
   westerly in the mid to high levels and strengthening with height (40
   kt at 4km to 75 kt at 9km), are yielding 50+ kt effective shear and
   a wind profile supportive of updraft rotation with elevated
   thunderstorms.  It is unclear the coverage of severe activity, but a
   couple of stronger storms appear probable over the next few hours
   and capable primarily of a hail hazard.

   ..Smith/Hart.. 04/18/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...LIX...LCH...HGX...FWD...EWX...

   LAT...LON   29849625 30069689 30589687 30919621 30139144 29579145
               29179226 29559523 29849625