Mesoscale Discussion 0398
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0827 PM CDT Sat Apr 18 2020

   Areas affected...ArkLaTex and far southeast Oklahoma

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 190127Z - 190330Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

   SUMMARY...Elevated storms will continue to develop and move
   northeast tonight over the ArkLaTex and far southeast Oklahoma.
   Marginally severe hail is the main threat, and a watch is unlikely
   given the isolated and marginal severe threat.

   DISCUSSION...A few elevated storms have developed across portions of
   east Texas and far southeast Oklahoma over the last hour. Warm air
   advection is helping to initiate elevated convection within a
   corridor of elevated buoyancy extending from east Texas into
   southeast Oklahoma. This corridor of higher MUCAPE (500-1000+ J/kg)
   will slowly translate eastward as heights begin to slowly fall in
   response to an upper-level shortwave trough moving into the
   Southwest and southern/central High Plains. A southwesterly
   low-level jet of 25-40 knots is expected over this region overnight,
   which will continue to support elevated convection. Unidirectional
   shear aloft will also aid updraft development/storm organization to
   the extent of marginally severe hail. Additionally, isolated strong
   wind gusts reaching the surface cannot be ruled out. These initial
   storms may begin to weaken and collapse as they reach the edge of
   better instability/buoyancy, but convection developing behind them
   may traverse further into Arkansas and Louisiana later tonight.

   ..Nauslar/Goss.. 04/19/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...

   LAT...LON   31419467 31849546 32779573 33679596 34239595 34569563
               34579416 34309347 33879302 33369276 32709281 31999310
               31629384 31419467