Mesoscale Discussion 0399
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0856 PM CDT Sat Apr 18 2020

   Areas affected...Lower Mississippi Valley

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 190156Z - 190400Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

   SUMMARY...Elevated storms are expected to continue moving east
   across southern Louisiana and into far southern Mississippi tonight.
   Severe hail is main threat, but a watch issuance is unlikely.

   DISCUSSION...Storms developed across southeast Texas and along/south
   of the Louisiana Gulf Shore this afternoon and have continued slowly
   moving mostly eastward with new convective initiation also
   occurring. These storms are likely rooted around 700 mb per LCH 00z
   sounding, but steep mid-level lapse rates have advected into the
   region resulting in MUCAPE of 1000-2000 J/kg. Unidirectional shear
   in the cloud bearing layer of 45-60 knots has resulted in occasional
   elevated supercells resulting in severe hail. Left splits have also
   occurred and will remain possible given the long hodographs and
   current easterly storm motion. There is uncertainty how long these
   storms will continue, but it is possible that they will persist
   overnight as they slowly move east-northeast.

   ..Nauslar/Goss.. 04/19/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...MOB...JAN...LIX...LCH...

   LAT...LON   29638930 29309090 29569334 29979325 30659284 31259163
               31279075 31188991 30918924 30338899 29638930