Mesoscale Discussion 0400
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0234 AM CDT Sun Apr 19 2020

   Areas affected...southeast AR...central MS and west-central AL

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 190734Z - 190930Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Isolated, elevated thunderstorms may occasionally produce
   marginally severe hail the next few hours from southeast AR through
   central MS into west-central AL.

   DISCUSSION...Elevated convection will continue, and gradually
   increase through early morning as strong warm advection continues to
   spread across the region. A strong to severe storm over Yazoo County
   MS as of 715z has shown radar representation indicating at least
   small hail. 00z regional RAOBs indicated a plume of steep midlevel
   lapse rates across the lower MS Valley vicinity and effective shear
   that has since increased and become more supportive of organized
   storms. However, instability remains weak across the area, with
   MUCAPE values generally less than 1000 J/kg based on mesoanalysis
   and forecast RAP soundings. 

   Expect these initial storms to occasionally strengthen and become
   capable of marginally severe hail over the next few hours, and a
   watch is not expected at this time.  This area will continue to be
   monitored for watch potential later this morning as increasing
   threat for surface-based convection develops closer to 12z.

   ..Leitman/Edwards.. 04/19/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...BMX...HUN...MEG...JAN...LZK...

   LAT...LON   34249201 34519094 34418908 34318807 33948748 33518738
               33088763 32698834 32578881 32608953 32669070 32949150
               33259217 33469241 33599250 33969238 34249201