Mesoscale Discussion 0401
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0722 AM CDT Sun Apr 19 2020

   Areas affected...portions of central and southeastern TX into far
   western LA

   Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely 

   Valid 191222Z - 191415Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

   SUMMARY...Thunderstorm activity will increase through the morning
   from central into southeastern Texas. Very large hail, a few
   tornadoes and damaging wind gusts are all possible. A tornado watch
   will likely be needed in the next 1-2 hours.

   DISCUSSION...Elevated convection is increasing this morning across
   portions of central TX with large-scale ascent increasing as a
   shortwave trough begins to eject eastward from NM into western TX.
   Initial convection will likely remain elevated for a couple of hours
   until stronger heating after sunrise allows surface inhibition to
   erode and as a warm front draped across the area continues to lift
   northward. Nevertheless, very steep midlevel lapse rates (7.5-8.5
   C/km) are contributing to MUCAPE values around 2000 J/kg per 12z
   mesoanalysis and the 12z FWD RAOB. Effective shear is sufficient for
   storm organization currently, and will continue to improve over the
   next few hours. Large hail (some potentially greater than 2 inches
   in diameter) will be the main concern in the immediate near-term,
   especially with any discrete cells. 

   With time, convection will become surface-based as it approaches far
   eastern TX and the Sabine River Valley late this morning. As this
   occurs, an increasing threat for tornadoes and damaging winds will
   accompany convection. While low level hodographs will become
   enlarged by late morning into the afternoon, deep-layer winds are
   rather unidirectional above 3km. This could result in storm
   interactions and clustering toward midday, with a mix of
   semi-discrete cells and clusters/bowing segments. As such, all
   severe hazards are anticipated and some locations could see more
   than one round of severe storms.

   ..Leitman/Hart.. 04/19/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD...CRP...EWX...

   LAT...LON   30149405 29459444 29049499 28729556 28669603 28849667
               29239735 29749777 30429783 31119772 31729739 32109698
               32549626 32729558 32749490 32599438 32379412 31819386
               31329375 30529391 30149405