Mesoscale Discussion 0402
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1045 AM CDT Sun Apr 19 2020

   Areas affected...east TX...west-central and northwest LA

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 120...

   Valid 191545Z - 191745Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 120 continues.

   SUMMARY...Severe thunderstorm intensity and potential will probably
   increase over the next 1-2 hours as storms develop and intensify
   further.  Large hail and severe gusts (60-75 mph) are likely with
   the stronger storms.  The tornado risk appears to increase later
   during the early afternoon.

   DISCUSSION...Radar imagery shows a cluster of strong to severe
   thunderstorms near the warm front from east TX into north-central
   LA.  As the boundary layer continues to gradually destabilize as
   temperatures warm through the lower 70s F into the upper 70s,
   additional storm development is likely with little convective
   inhibition remaining across the area.  The onset of stronger 700mb
   flow is forecast to overspread east TX around noon and subsequently
   farther east into LA during the early afternoon.  As this occurs,
   expecting the hodograph to enlarge similarly to forecast hodographs
   depicted in the latest NAM/RAP models.  Coupled with heating and the
   enlarging hodograph, the tornado risk will likely increase
   coincident with the strengtheing 850-700mb flow.  In the meantime,
   greater storm organization appears likely with large to possibly
   very large hail occurring with the strongest updrafts.  The larger
   cores, especially the Cherokee County, TX storm, will be capable of
   severe gusts in the 60-75 mph range.

   ..Smith.. 04/19/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...

   LAT...LON   31659514 32159478 32389246 32119211 31559206 31039253
               31199506 31659514