Mesoscale Discussion 0403
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1106 AM CDT Sun Apr 19 2020

   Areas affected...portions of northeast and east-central
   LA...southern and central MS

   Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely 

   Valid 191606Z - 191700Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

   SUMMARY...Free warm sector initiation is being monitored along the
   warm front over the next few hours.  A tornado watch is likely by
   12pm CDT.  Storms moving eastward into east-central LA will likely
   prompt the tornado watch issuance.

   DISCUSSION...Visible satellite imagery shows cloud breaks in the
   stratus field across southern MS and southeast LA to the south of
   the warm front.  11am CDT surface observations indicate temperatures
   have warmed into the middle to upper 70s F and dewpoints are in the
   70-73 F range over southern MS.  Low to mid-level flow in the
   850-700mb layer is forecast to intensify between 11am and 3pm CDT. 
   As this occurs in response to the approach of the southern Great
   Plains mid-level shortwave trough, the potential for storms to
   acquire low to mid-level rotation will correspondingly increase. 
   Large hail/damaging gusts are possible with the initial activity
   over the next 1-2 hours over northeast LA spreading into MS. 
   However, the tornado risk will seemingly increase through the
   afternoon in association with strengthening low-level
   shear/enlarging hodographs.  Details concerning the initiation and
   subsequent evolution of the individual storm-scale are somewhat
   nebulous.  However, once supercell structures are evident, the
   tornado risk will begin to heighten across the region.

   ..Smith/Hart.. 04/19/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...MOB...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV...

   LAT...LON   32509194 32568997 32318881 31828845 31428857 31068904
               30969222 32509194