Mesoscale Discussion 0404
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1119 AM CDT Sun Apr 19 2020

   Areas affected...North-Central/Northeast Texas...far Southeast
   Oklahoma...and Southwest Arkansas

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 191619Z - 191815Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...A few isolated storms may persist this morning, watch
   possible.

   DISCUSSION...Regional radar shows a few cells developing near/within
   the DFW metro area, with severe hail reports of 1 to 1.5 inches
   being reported thus far. These storms have developed within a pocket
   of clearing evident in visible satellite, which allowed temperatures
   to warm into the low 70s across the area earlier this morning. Since
   then, cloud cover has overspread the region, however MLCAPE values
   remain near 2000 J/kg for at least a portion of the area amid
   persistent effective bulk shear of 55-65 kt. 

   With time, further destabilization is forecast to occur as low-level
   warm-air convection and large-scale forcing for ascent arrives by
   early afternoon, as depicted in the latest RAP/HRRR guidance. For
   now, it appears the coverage of severe convection will remain
   isolated, although trends will continue to be monitored in the short
   term for potential watch issuance.

   ..Karstens/Hart.. 04/19/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...

   LAT...LON   32299585 32049668 32429719 33239709 34539421 34259329
               33169243 32859404 32539503 32299585