Mesoscale Discussion 0407
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0203 PM CDT Sun Apr 19 2020

   Areas affected...southeast TX...southern and central LA

   Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely 

   Valid 191903Z - 192000Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

   SUMMARY...A new tornado watch will likely be needed before the
   expiration of tornado watch #120 at 3pm CDT for much of central and
   southern LA.  A local extension-in-time can be utilized for the area
   near Galveston Bay for existing tornado watch #120.

   DISCUSSION...The risk for severe thunderstorms will likely continue
   over the Sabine River Valley through the afternoon.  The airmass has
   destabilized over southern LA according to the 18z Lake Charles
   sounding.  A notable weakness in the flow, evident around 600mb,
   will likely lessen with time as the mid-level shortwave trough over
   the southern Great Plains continues to approach the northwest Gulf
   Coast.  Additional storm activity is expected over LA later this
   afternoon with hail/wind the expected hazards with the stronger
   storms.  The more intense/persistent low-level mesocyclones will be
   associated with a conditional risk for tornadoes.  The 17z RAP
   forecast soundings indicate the most favorable combination of
   enlarged hodographs and instability will focus during the late
   afternoon through the early evening.

   ..Smith/Hart.. 04/19/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV...

   LAT...LON   30819446 31229415 31999306 32229206 31309205 30969170
               30959070 29369118 29629379 30089429 30819446