Mesoscale Discussion 0408
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0303 PM CDT Sun Apr 19 2020

   Areas affected...central AL

   Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely 

   Valid 192003Z - 192200Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

   SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will likely intensify over the next several
   hours across central AL.  Timing of a tornado watch issuance will be
   dependent on short-term convective trends from storms currently over
   east-central MS.

   DISCUSSION...Radar imagery shows a west-east cluster of strong
   thunderstorms located from east-central MS through central AL.  The
   thunderstorm activity is located to the north of a composite
   outflow/warm front draped from the southeast corner of AL
   west-northwestward into central MS.  It appears storm development
   during the next few hours will largely cross the warm front and
   become elevated but potentially yield some risk for hail/locally
   damaging gusts.  

   Later this afternoon and especially during the evening, a mid-level
   shortwave trough will move east into the ArkLaTex.  Additional storm
   development and storms moving into the area from the west, will pose
   an increasing risk for severe.  Low-level shear is forecast to
   strengthen through the early evening.  A tornado risk will tend to
   focus with any surface-based supercells.  However, the damaging wind
   risk may concentrate with quickly moving bowing segments that may
   preferentially move eastward along and slightly north of the warm
   front.

   ..Smith/Hart.. 04/19/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...TAE...BMX...MOB...JAN...

   LAT...LON   32908836 32768657 31908554 31298570 31568842 32908836