Mesoscale Discussion 0409
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0307 PM CDT Sun Apr 19 2020

   Areas affected...South-Central Mississippi

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 121...

   Valid 192007Z - 192200Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 121 continues.

   SUMMARY...The threat for damaging winds, hail and tornadoes
   continues.

   DISCUSSION...Regional radar shows a cluster of storms has entered
   western portions of WW 121. These storms are undergoing complex mode
   transformations, with intermittent weak to moderate (30-40 kt)
   embedded rotational velocity signatures in addition to broader
   damaging wind potential. Consequently, the short-term evolution of
   this storm cluster remains somewhat uncertain. However, enhanced
   mid-level flow is now entering the region, resulting in the
   appearance of near 50 kt of effective bulk shear. Meanwhile, the
   environment remains moderately unstable across portions of central
   Mississippi, characterized by approximately 2000-2500 J/kg of MLCAPE
   downstream of the ongoing cluster, and thus a damaging wind threat
   will persist across the watch area for the next few hours as this
   cluster propagates along the east-west oriented baroclinic zone.

   In addition, isolated convection has developed within the warm
   sector downstream of the aforementioned storm cluster. These storms
   will pose an initial hail threat. Surface mesoanalysis indicates a
   modest improvement in low-level shear in proximity to these storms,
   with near 150 m^2/s^2 of 0-1 SRH. Given the background
   thermodynamic/kinematic environment, these storms have the best
   potential for supercell organization, with all modes of severe
   possible, if they can remain discrete.

   ..Karstens.. 04/19/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...MOB...JAN...LIX...

   LAT...LON   31248882 31309119 32249153 32979057 32958897 32658845
               31248882