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Mesoscale Discussion 0412
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0637 PM CDT Sun Apr 19 2020
Areas affected...far southern Mississippi into eastern Louisiana
Concerning...Tornado Watch 121...122...123...
Valid 192337Z - 200030Z
The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 121, 122, 123 continues.
SUMMARY...A corridor for higher tornado potential exists across far
southern Mississippi into adjacent areas of eastern Louisiana south
of an outflow boundary. Storms moving along/south of this boundary
will encounter stronger low-level shear.
DISCUSSION...An outflow boundary has moved south from central
Mississippi into southern Mississippi where winds have backed to
southeasterly along and just south of this boundary. A few
supercells developed across southwest Mississippi and eastern
Louisiana in the last hour or so, but have now mostly congealed into
a cluster due to upscale growth and the southward moving outflow
boundary. However, the southern storm is still exhibiting supercell
characteristics and has shown MESH values of 1+ inch although
convective interference has weakened it somewhat. Surface winds near
MCB and eastward have backed to the southeast indicating potentially
higher low-level helicity, which could increase the tornado threat.
There remains uncertainty due to the amount of potential convective
interference and that the outflow boundary could continue sliding
southward.
..Nauslar/Guyer.. 04/19/2020
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...MOB...JAN...LIX...
LAT...LON 30759024 30889042 31329047 31449026 31538914 31498883
31338867 31108858 30728875 30738900 30718983 30759024
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