Mesoscale Discussion 0415
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0907 PM CDT Sun Apr 19 2020

   Areas affected...southeast Louisiana and southeast Mississippi

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 122...123...

   Valid 200207Z - 200330Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 122, 123 continues.

   SUMMARY...A cluster of storms is moving eastward across the Lower
   Mississippi Valley with the strongest storms in southeast
   Mississippi. All severe threats remain possible, and a replacement
   watch will likely be needed by 03z.

   DISCUSSION...A supercell tracked eastward across southern
   Mississippi has grown upscale and become a west-east oriented
   cluster over an outflow boundary that has been moving south across
   Mississippi. Damaging wind is the likely main threat in this area,
   although marginally severe hail and a brief tornado are also
   possible. These storms are likely to continue moving eastward
   staying near the Gulf Coast where the surface front has been pushed
   southward by convection to the north.

   Farther to the west, new storms are developing west of New Orleans
   near Baton Rouge along the leading edge of the approaching
   upper-level shortwave trough and near a surface boundary extending
   southwest from a surface low in southern Mississippi. Given the lack
   of capping per 00z LIX sounding, a fair amount of convective
   initiation is occurring without much storm organization thus far.
   However, there is potential for a storm or two to intensify across
   southeast Louisiana where the environment has not been convectively
   overturned. There is also potential for these storms to merge and
   extend to the northeast to form a QLCS with the storms in southeast
   Mississippi as the low-level jet strengthens tonight. All severe
   threats are possible, but damaging winds are the most likely.

   ..Nauslar/Guyer.. 04/20/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...MOB...JAN...LIX...

   LAT...LON   30138844 29578933 29509070 29649096 30169110 30839027
               31128948 31288843 31318805 30898795 30138844