Mesoscale Discussion 0416
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0953 PM CDT Sun Apr 19 2020

   Areas affected...Florida Panhandle...Southwestern Georgia

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

   Valid 200253Z - 200400Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

   SUMMARY...Tornado watch will likely be issued within the hour.

   DISCUSSION...Expansive area of convection has evolved across
   MS/AL/GA late this evening. This activity is suppressing higher
   instability to within 50-80mi of the Gulf Coast as convective
   outflow is reinforced along southern fringe of precip shield. 00z
   sounding from TLH exhibited a strong cap at 850mb, through steep
   mid-level lapse rates and strong deep-layer shear will be supportive
   of organized robust updrafts. Over the lat hour or so, numerous
   showers have begun to develop off the Coast into western FL
   Panhandle. This may be indicative of a weakening cap in response to
   approaching large-scale forcing for ascent. There is increasing
   concern that convection will gradually deepen across this region and
   strong thunderstorms may ultimately evolve into the early-morning
   hours. If so, this activity would track east into southwestern GA
   where a favorably-draped outflow boundary could provide the focus
   supercells and possible tornadoes.

   ..Darrow/Guyer.. 04/20/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...FFC...TAE...BMX...MOB...

   LAT...LON   31238623 32048475 31608373 30588394 30398615 31238623