Mesoscale Discussion 0417
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1252 AM CDT Mon Apr 20 2020

   Areas affected...portions of northern FL...southeast GA and coastal
   SC

   Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely 

   Valid 200552Z - 200715Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

   SUMMARY...A tornado watch will be needed soon for portions of
   coastal SC, southeast GA and northern FL.

   DISCUSSION...A warm front is draped across southern GA as of 530z,
   with a substantial QLCS intersecting the boundary over southwest GA,
   and extending southwestward through the western FL Panhandle toward
   Mobile Bay. The warm front has had difficulty lifting northward this
   evening, as warm advection atop the boundary has resulted in
   long-duration stratiform precip across northern/central GA into much
   of the Carolinas. However, some northward frontal movement is
   expected over the next several hours as the surface low over central
   AL shifts eastward and a a 50kt southwesterly low-level jet
   continues to spread east/northeast across GA/SC. 

   Regional VWP data indicates enlarged low-level hodographs across the
   warm sector, downstream of the eastward-advancing QLCS. Intense
   shear and MLCAPE values increasing to 1000-2000 J/kg will continue
   to support not only damaging gusts with the QLCS, but also embedded
   mesovortex tornadoes and/or tornadic cells should they develop
   across the open warm sector ahead of the line. As such, a tornado
   watch will likely be needed soon for portions of the MCD area.

   ..Leitman/Edwards.. 04/20/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...CHS...CAE...TBW...JAX...FFC...TAE...

   LAT...LON   31028129 30408135 30108166 29498257 29278298 29308311
               29718319 30998326 31768330 32128306 32378279 32908138
               33268025 33237985 33087948 32897944 32567977 32148024
               31028129