Mesoscale Discussion 0418
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0519 AM CDT Mon Apr 20 2020

   Areas affected...northern FL and the GA/southern SC coast

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 126...

   Valid 201019Z - 201145Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 126 continues.

   SUMMARY...Damaging wind and a couple of tornadoes remain possible
   across northern FL this morning.

   DISCUSSION...Convection along a line from the GA coast southwestward
   toward the FL coastal bend has been subdued over the past hour or so
   based on 7 km CAPPI trends. Some increase has been noted more
   recently near the FL/GA border toward the FL coastal bend and a
   threat for isolated severe storms will continue the next few hours,
   mainly across northern FL, as more robust convection further north
   has moved offshore the GA/SC coast.  

   The airmass ahead of the line across northern FL remains moderately
   unstable with MLCAPE values as high as 2500 J/kg, aided by surface
   dewpoints in the low 70s, as noted on 10z mesoanalysis. Vertical
   shear remains strong, and although low level flow is veered, latest
   VWPs from JAX, TBW and MLB indicate 0-3km hodographs favorable for
   rotation/tornadoes. However, deep-layer flow generally is parallel
   to the line of convection and limiting more cellular convection.
   Nevertheless, strong gusts and a couple of tornadoes will remain
   possible as the line tracks east/northeast at around 40-50 kt over
   the next several hours.

   While not immediately anticipated, depending of convective trends,
   WW 126 may need to be locally expanded southward across the
   remainder of the JAX CWA and/or a new watch issued to include
   portions of WFOs TBW and MLB. Across the northern extent of WW 126,
   the severe threat has mainly shifted offshore the GA/SC coast and
   the watch could be cancelled early.

   ..Leitman.. 04/20/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...CHS...MLB...TBW...JAX...TAE...

   LAT...LON   31668001 30948051 30138071 28928115 28608148 28368227
               28418270 28648305 29118338 29578342 30138323 30588273
               31228183 31908109 32668029 32657979 32387964 31977968
               31668001