Mesoscale Discussion 0420
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1006 AM CDT Mon Apr 20 2020

   Areas affected...Portions of the central FL peninsula

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 127...

   Valid 201506Z - 201700Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 127
   continues.

   SUMMARY...Damaging winds and perhaps a tornado will remain possible
   across parts of central Florida for at least the next couple of
   hours.

   DISCUSSION...A broken line of storms ahead of a cold front will
   continue moving southeastward across the central FL peninsula this
   morning into the early afternoon. Diurnal heating and ample
   low-level moisture are contributing to around 2000-2500 J/kg MLCAPE.
   Recent VWPs estimates from KTBW and area surface observations
   indicate low-level flow has generally veered to southwesterly, which
   is reducing 0-1 km SRH. Still, there appears to be enough veering of
   the low to mid-level wind profile and strong deep-layer shear to
   support occasional rotation with cells embedded within the line.
   Accordingly, a brief tornado cannot be ruled out. Damaging winds
   will likely continue to be the primary threat as steepening
   low-level lapse rates should support efficient mixing of
   strong/gusty downdraft winds to the surface. Both the low and
   mid-level flow are expected to gradually weaken through the
   afternoon as a shortwave trough currently over the East Coast pivots
   northeastward and away from the FL Peninsula. This should result in
   a gradually diminishing severe threat later this afternoon.

   ..Gleason.. 04/20/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...MLB...TBW...

   LAT...LON   29238093 29218140 28948165 28688272 27888289 26988236
               27768034 28188055 28598057 29238093