Mesoscale Discussion 0422
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0220 PM CDT Mon Apr 20 2020

   Areas affected...Portions of southern MO

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 201920Z - 202145Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...Isolated large hail and strong/gusty winds may occur with
   developing thunderstorms this afternoon. Watch issuance is possible.

   DISCUSSION...Mid-level cloudiness associated with a subtle shortwave
   trough is developing southward across central/southern MO this
   afternoon, with a storm recently forming over Webster County.
   Low-level moisture remains quite limited over this region, with
   surface dewpoints generally in the mid 40s to low 50s. Still, cold
   temperatures aloft combined with modest diurnal heating are
   supporting up to 500 J/kg of MLCAPE. Modest additional heating and
   steepening of mid-level lapse rates may allow MLCAPE up to 1000 J/kg
   to develop by late afternoon. Recent VWPs from KSGF show weak
   low-level winds, but some strengthening does occur in the 2-5 km AGL
   layer. Long, straight hodographs and 35-40 kt of effective bulk
   shear from various RAP forecast soundings across southern MO
   indicate potential for storm organization, perhaps including a
   couple high-based supercells. Isolated large hail should be the main
   threat with any storms that can form, although strong/gusty winds
   also appear possible where low-level lapse rates have steepened
   through daytime heating. At this point, the primary uncertainty
   regarding possible watch issuance appears to be overall storm
   coverage, which may tend to be somewhat isolated. Radar trends will
   continue to be monitored through the afternoon.

   ..Gleason/Hart.. 04/20/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...PAH...LSX...SGF...

   LAT...LON   36619437 37349446 37839386 38149266 38039158 37309114
               36819117 36569143 36619437