Mesoscale Discussion 0423
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0338 PM CDT Mon Apr 20 2020

   Areas affected...Portions of the TX/OK Panhandle into
   northern/central OK and far southeastern KS

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 202038Z - 202315Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

   SUMMARY...Isolated strong/gusty winds and hail appear possible
   through the afternoon. Severe storm coverage and intensity should
   remain too isolated/marginal for watch issuance.

   DISCUSSION...Several thunderstorms have recently developed with weak
   low-level convergence occurring along a surface trough extending
   from the TX/OK Panhandles eastward into parts of northern/central OK
   and far southeastern KS. Large-scale ascent over these areas is
   forecast to remain rather nebulous, with modest northwesterly flow
   aloft persisting through the early evening. Weak instability and
   limited shear should generally temper updraft organization. However,
   the boundary layer has become well mixed along/south of the surface
   trough. Accordingly, isolated instances of strong/gusty downdraft
   winds and marginally severe hail may occur through the early evening
   as storms develop slowly southward. A slightly better chance for
   marginally severe storms may exist over parts of northern/central OK
   in somewhat closer proximity to a shortwave trough over MO.
   Regardless, both storm coverage and intensity are expected to remain
   too isolated/marginal for watch issuance this afternoon.

   ..Gleason/Hart.. 04/20/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...SGF...TSA...ICT...OUN...AMA...

   LAT...LON   36200146 36540151 36880124 36590019 36279899 36339798
               36689659 37239536 37169471 36319466 35949520 35489642
               35369928 36200146