Mesoscale Discussion 0425
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0217 PM CDT Tue Apr 21 2020

   Areas affected...Far Northeast NM...Far Southeast CO...TX/OK
   Panhandles

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

   Valid 211917Z - 212015Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

   SUMMARY...Increasing thunderstorm intition is anticipated across far
   northeast NM with the storms then moving into the TX/OK Panhandles.
   Threat for large hail and strong wind gusts exists, with isolated
   instances of very large hail possible.

   DISCUSSION...Recent surface analysis places a low over far southeast
   CO with a dryline extending from it southeastward into the TX South
   Plains and a lee trough extending from it southward into southeast
   NM. A warm front intersects this dryline west of AMA and then
   extends southeastward along the Red River. This warm front has been
   lifting northward throughout the day, helping to counteract some of
   the effects of strong diurnal mixing across much of the TX
   Panhandle. 

   This warm front may eventually act as a favorable corridor for
   thunderstorm propagation, but for now strong heating and convergence
   along the dryline in far northeast NM (augmented by increasing
   large-scale ascent ahead of an approaching shortwave trough) will be
   the primary method of convective initiation. A moderately unstable
   and strongly sheared environment is already in place. Expectation is
   for storms to form in this area before then tracking southeastward
   into the more buoyant air mass over the TX/OK Panhandle. Primary
   threat with these storm will be large hail. As storm move eastward
   into a more buoyant environment, potential for a few instance of
   very large hail exists. Bowing segments capable of strong wind gusts
   are also possible.

   ..Mosier/Hart.. 04/21/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...DDC...LUB...AMA...PUB...ABQ...

   LAT...LON   37270447 37470327 37090179 36100016 34380009 34910231
               36250463 37270447