Mesoscale Discussion 0429
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0625 PM CDT Tue Apr 21 2020

   Areas affected...Central Texas

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 212325Z - 220100Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...An isolated threat of severe weather exists across central
   Texas this evening. A weather watch is unlikely.

   DISCUSSION...A couple of stronger updrafts have recently developed
   along a bulging dryline through central Texas. These storms have
   formed at the nose of deeper surface moisture with dewpoints in the
   lower to middle 60s F and temperatures in the 80s F. The warm and
   moist conditions underneath mid-level lapse rates of 7-8 C/km are
   supporting MLCAPE of 2000-2500 J/kg. 50 to 55 kt of 0-6 km bulk
   shear will support storm organization with a supercell mode likely.
   An isolated severe weather threat of mainly damaging winds and large
   hail will be possible with these storms through this evening. The
   longevity of the severe threat is expected to be short lived with
   greater inhibition indicated by mesoanalysis to the east. Storms may
   persist for an hour or so after sunset but the limited time frame
   and spatial extent of the severe threat likely precludes watch
   issuance at this time.

   ..Lyons/Grams.. 04/21/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...FWD...SJT...

   LAT...LON   32870044 32899960 32719871 31639854 31019892 30979956
               31070028 31230050 32090022 32870044