Mesoscale Discussion 0434
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0216 AM CDT Wed Apr 22 2020

   Areas affected...extreme northeast NM into the OK/TX
   Panhandles...northwest OK and portions of southwest KS

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 220716Z - 220915Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Sporadic hail near 1 inch will be possible in stronger
   storms through early morning.

   DISCUSSION...Clusters of thunderstorms are developing north of a
   quasi-stationary warm front in strong low-level warm advection and
   upslope flow, ahead of a deepening surface low and ejecting midlevel
   trough. Steep midlevel lapse rates are in place, with a 6z RAOB from
   AMA showing near 9 C/km midlevel lapse rates. 7z mesoanalysis
   indicates probably a more reasonable gradient of 7.5-8.5 C/km
   midlevel lapse rates across the MCD area. Additionally, strong
   elevated instability is present across the region, with MUCAPE
   values around 1000-2000 J/kg. As a result, convection will be
   capable of sustaining updrafts and organized cells with sporadic
   instances of near-severe hail. The main limiting factor at this time
   appears to be messy storm mode, with clusters and storm interactions
   precluding longer-lived discrete convection. As such, a watch is not
   immediately expected, but trends will be monitored.

   ..Leitman/Edwards.. 04/22/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...OUN...DDC...AMA...ABQ...

   LAT...LON   36250323 36660266 37330104 37660009 37729933 37639910
               37409867 36949857 36629872 36139953 35899996 35560069
               35210161 34990264 34980318 35190360 35810373 36250323