Mesoscale Discussion 0438
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0110 PM CDT Wed Apr 22 2020

   Areas affected...central/eastern Texas and western Louisiana

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 133...

   Valid 221810Z - 221915Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 133 continues.

   SUMMARY...The severe threat continues across WW 133.

   DISCUSSION...Latest convective trends indicate that storms are
   struggling to sustain persistent severe intensity so far, with only
   occasional 1-1.5" hail reports beneath the strongest cores.  Steep
   mid-level lapse rates and appreciable cloud-bearing shear will
   maintain this threat, though based on point forecast soundings it
   appears that most storms are elevated above a relatively stable
   boundary layer and unable to ingest low-level shear/vorticity needed
   for mesocyclogenesis.

   The threat for isolated large hail should continue throughout the
   duration of the watch, and any risk of tornadoes or damaging wind
   gusts will likely be tied to any surface-based convection that can
   organize.  The most likely area for this conditional threat will
   exist in the eastern half of the Watch from the Lufkin vicinity into
   west-central Louisiana over the next few hours.

   ..Cook.. 04/22/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD...EWX...

   LAT...LON   30869780 31499717 32089592 32499449 32299302 31539220
               30579213 30079302 30189436 29809569 29559679 29559784
               30239814 30869780