Mesoscale Discussion 0447
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0647 PM CDT Wed Apr 22 2020

   Areas affected...Far East-Central LA...Far Northeast Southern
   LA...Southwest MS

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 222347Z - 230115Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Isolated hail and damaging wind gusts possible but
   marginal nature of the severe threat is expected to preclude watch
   issuance.

   DISCUSSION...Thunderstorm moving out of Concordia Parish LA into
   Adams and Wilkinson Counties in MS has shown a
   strengthening/maturing trend over the past 30 minutes, with some
   supercellular radar signatures recently noted. This storm is moving
   just north of the warm front in an area characterized by limited
   buoyancy and low-level stability. Expectation is for the warm front
   to remain relatively stationary until later this evening when a
   strengthening low-level jet and the approaching shortwave trough act
   to influence more northward motion. As a result, the ongoing
   supercell (and those in its wake over northern LA) will pose an
   isolated threat for large hail, and perhaps damaging wind gusts, but
   the tornado threat currently appears low. Given the marginal nature
   of the threat, a watch is not currently anticipated with this round
   of storms.

   ..Mosier/Grams.. 04/22/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...MOB...JAN...LIX...

   LAT...LON   32179125 31989021 31378908 30388941 31009158 31999184
               32179125