Mesoscale Discussion 0456
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0743 AM CDT Thu Apr 23 2020

   Areas affected...extreme southeast MS into far southern AL and the
   western FL Panhandle

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 139...

   Valid 231243Z - 231415Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 139 continues.

   SUMMARY...Strong to severe thunderstorms will continue this morning
   across far southern AL into the western FL Panhandle. Damaging gusts
   and tornadoes are expected to be the main hazards.

   DISCUSSION...Strong to severe storms continue to track along/near a
   warm front, positioned from north of Mobile Bay east/southeast
   through the western/central FL Panhandle. These storms have shown
   occasional increases in low-level rotation and have produced strong
   gusts and possibly a tornado or two over the past couple of hours.
   Stronger vertical shear, and large, curved low-level hodographs will
   continue to support supercell structures. The downstream warm sector
   is rather confined to extreme southern AL and the western/central FL
   Panhandle. The northward advance of the warm front has been limited
   by 1. stronger forcing lagging eastward progressing convection with
   the upper trough currently located over the Ozarks and 2. expansive
   area of rain that moved across northern/central AL into northern GA
   overnight/early this morning. 

   As such, severe potential through the morning hours will likely
   remain limited to the narrow warm sector.  Given the expansive
   morning convection across AL/GA it remains unclear how far north the
   warm sector will advance into areas of northern FL and southern GA. 
   As such, downstream watch potential remains uncertain at this time.

   ..Leitman.. 04/23/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...TAE...BMX...MOB...JAN...LIX...

   LAT...LON   32178656 32158624 32038536 31348417 30358386 29748408
               29628428 29518520 29578573 29948672 29938833 30158935
               30858933 31138885 31578773 31998711 32178656