Mesoscale Discussion 0457
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0929 AM CDT Thu Apr 23 2020

   Areas affected...southern Georgia and northern Florida

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

   Valid 231429Z - 231530Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

   SUMMARY...The severe threat including potential for damaging wind
   and tornadoes is expected to spread eastward through southern
   Georgia and northern Florida during the late morning into the
   afternoon. A tornado watch will likely be needed soon.

   DISCUSSION...This morning a line of severe storms extends from
   southeast AL into the northwestern Florida Panhandle. Embedded
   supercell structures continue to be observed on the northern End of
   the line over southeast AL. This activity is moving east around 40
   kt. A warm front currently extends from northern FL northwest into
   into far southeast AL. A 50 kt southerly low-level jet will migrate
   through this region in association with progressive shortwave trough
   and contribute to northward advance of the warm front into the
   afternoon. As this occurs, dewpoints will rise through the low to
   mid 60s F resulting in northward destabilization of the boundary
   layer and MLCAPE increasing to 1500 J/kg. Vertical wind profiles
   with 50+ kt effective bulk shear and large low-level hodographs will
   support organized storms including supercells and bowing segments
   capable of damaging wind and tornadoes.

   ..Dial/Hart.. 04/23/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...CHS...JAX...FFC...TAE...

   LAT...LON   32228163 31748125 30758149 30278172 29918247 30228372
               30448514 30998550 31338520 31558433 32188316 32358229
               32228163