Mesoscale Discussion 0461
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0137 PM CDT Thu Apr 23 2020

   Areas affected...southeastern Louisiana and Mississippi into
   west-central Alabama

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 231837Z - 232030Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are starting to develop across southeastern
   Louisiana and east-central Mississippi in an unstable, yet narrow,
   warm sector.  Given the complexities created by the earlier and
   ongoing widespread convection to the south and east, the need for a
   watch is uncertain.

   DISCUSSION...Multiple rounds of deep convection across the Florida
   panhandle and coastal areas of Louisiana have complicated the
   evolution of the pre-convective environment across inland portions
   of Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alabama.  Extensive cloud cover
   across the region, resulting from strong convection over the Gulf,
   has limited heating and destabilization over the warm sector. 
   Nevertheless, thunderstorms are trying to develop ahead of the
   surface front/pressure trough as a midlevel shortwave trough
   approaches.  If enough clearing/destabilization is able to occur
   across the warm sector to get vigorous updraft and thunderstorm
   development, sufficient shear is in place to support organized
   storms with a threat of large hail and damaging winds.

   ..Jirak/Hart.. 04/23/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...JAN...LIX...LCH...

   LAT...LON   30219188 31069096 31589051 32138998 32488962 33138898
               33588851 33578793 33018728 32308720 31908734 31638756
               31278796 30628942 30319028 30089126 30219188