Mesoscale Discussion 0465
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1127 PM CDT Thu Apr 23 2020

   Areas affected...Northern FL

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 240427Z - 240600Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...Potential for a few damaging wind gusts, and perhaps even
   a brief tornado, will exist over northern FL over the next several
   hours.

   DISCUSSION...Convective line moving eastward into southern
   GA/northern FL has gradually intensified over the past hour. This
   line developed along the leading edge of the stronger forcing for
   ascent associated with the shortwave trough moving through the TN
   Valley/Southeast States. Air mass downstream of the ongoing line
   across much of southern GA/northern FL remains relatively moist but
   the boundary layer is stable, with temperatures and dewpoints in the
   mid 60s. Recent mesoanalysis estimates MLCAPE less than 500 J/kg.
   Even so, modest theta-e advection ongoing ahead of the line coupled
   with strong vertical shear could lead to a gradual increase in
   buoyancy and the potential for a few embedded updrafts strong enough
   to produce damaging wind gusts. 

   A seemingly higher severe threat may result from the storm currently
   about 30 miles south of AAF. Current estimated storm motion of 50-55
   kt, bringing it to the FL Big Bend coast around 06Z. Air mass across
   this area (and downstream) appears a bit more unstable. Deep-layer
   shear remains strong enough to support damaging wind gusts and
   perhaps even a brief tornado.

   ..Mosier/Grams.. 04/24/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...TBW...JAX...TAE...

   LAT...LON   30068417 30438377 30618347 30678250 30218185 29228203
               28888266 29258313 29718360 30068417