Mesoscale Discussion 0468
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0107 PM CDT Fri Apr 24 2020

   Areas affected...southeastern Kansas and northeastern Oklahoma

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 241807Z - 242000Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...Isolated hail and damaging wind gusts are possible with
   convection developing eastward across the discussion area.  A WW
   issuance may be considered later this afternoon.

   DISCUSSION...Convective trends indicate gradually
   expanding/intensifying storms near the Wichita Metro area, with a
   few echoes now starting to appear in radar imagery across far
   north-central Oklahoma.  The storms are concentrated near a
   north-to-south oriented surface trough near/just west of I35/135,
   with attendant convergence and lift from a mid-level shortwave
   trough approaching the region maintaining storms amidst modest
   instability.  7-7.5 C/km mid-level lapse rates support hail in the
   strongest cells, though weaknesses in flow aloft should limit the
   overall severe risk.  A wind-damage threat may evolve with any
   linear segments that can develop as well.

   Latest CAMs/model guidance suggest that ongoing storms will persist
   while migrating eastward across southeastern Kansas.  A few storms
   will also develop over time across northern Oklahoma - potentially
   affecting the Tulsa Metro area late afternoon.

   The overall risk appears to be too limited for a WW issuance in the
   short-term, although this will be re-evaluated as storms
   expand/develop southward into Oklahoma.

   ..Cook.. 04/24/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...SGF...TSA...ICT...OUN...

   LAT...LON   37169727 37589732 37979695 38049599 37429512 36919477
               36119460 35799472 35709512 35639581 35619638 35839675
               36399705 37169727