Mesoscale Discussion 0470
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0320 PM CDT Fri Apr 24 2020

   Areas affected...southeastern Oklahoma...northeastern Texas...and a
   small part of southwestern Arkansas

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

   Valid 242020Z - 242215Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

   SUMMARY...Though the threat is more conditional with southern
   extent, hail (perhaps significant) and wind gusts will become more
   likely with time.  A few tornadoes cannot be completely ruled out. 
   A WW is being considered this afternoon.

   DISCUSSION...Recent observations/satellite indicate sharpening
   surface convergence along a trough axis located from near PNC to CQB
   to ADM and FTW, with areas of cumulus now apparent especially near
   CQB and vicinity.  The environment across the warm sector has
   remained capped so far, though cooling aloft associated with an
   approaching mid-level wave should eventually result in scattered to
   numerous storms especially in east-central/southeastern Oklahoma. 
   CAMs/observational guidance cast a bit of doubt on convective
   coverage in northeastern Texas, though at least isolated storms are
   expected in these areas through the evening.

   Steep mid-level lapse rates and impressive mid-level shear profiles
   (with shear vectors orthogonal to the initiating surface trough)
   favor supercellular development, with relatively meager boundary
   layer moisture being the limiting factor for a more widespread
   tornado threat.  Nevertheless, large hail (perhaps significant near
   rotating updrafts) and damaging wind gusts are expected as storms
   develop and mature.  This threat may begin to materialize as early
   as 21-22Z in east-central Oklahoma and expand east/southeastward
   over time.

   Given the ongoing convective trends, a Tornado Watch may be needed
   at some point by 22Z.

   ..Cook/Thompson.. 04/24/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...

   LAT...LON   35419693 35539658 35499576 35379506 34689411 33699400
               32709406 32009427 31699494 31749574 32049656 32329697
               32899720 33969713 35419693