Mesoscale Discussion 0476
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0232 PM CDT Sat Apr 25 2020

   Areas affected...middle and eastern TN...far northern GA...far
   western NC

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 251932Z - 252100Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...Convection is expected to gradually intensify this
   afternoon.  A few low-topped supercells could develop and pose a
   hail/tornado risk.  Convective trends will be monitored over the
   next 1-2 hours.

   DISCUSSION...Water-vapor imagery shows a mid-level low slowly
   migrating eastward near the OH/MS River confluence.  Visible
   satellite imagery shows low clouds eroding across southern portions
   of middle and eastern TN in wake of earlier showers.  Surface
   temperatures have warmed into the middle to upper 60s F near
   Chattanooga in response to stronger surface heating.  Surface
   dewpoints remain relatively marginal and range in the lower to
   middle 50s F.

   A couple of weak convective bands are forming across middle TN.  It
   remains uncertain whether developing updrafts will become
   surface-based and intensify into organized/sustained storms. 
   However, model guidance indicates sufficient buoyancy may develop
   over the next few hours for at least an isolated risk for strong to
   severe thunderstorms.  If a few stronger updrafts manage to develop,
   forecast hodographs favor storm organization, including the
   possibility for a few of these updrafts to acquire supercell
   characteristics.  Therefore it appears an increasing risk for
   strong-storm activity will materialize at least on an isolated basis
   later this afternoon.  Hail and possibly a tornado may accompany the
   stronger storms.

   ..Smith/Thompson.. 04/25/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...GSP...MRX...FFC...LMK...OHX...HUN...

   LAT...LON   35478674 35948685 36428654 36668596 36018355 35658346
               35118357 34718400 34698452 35478674