Mesoscale Discussion 0478
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1251 AM CDT Sun Apr 26 2020

   Areas affected...Central and Eastern North Carolina

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 260551Z - 260800Z

   CORRECTED TEXT TO HOKE COUNTY, NORTH CAROLINA

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...A threat for wind damage and a tornado or two will likely
   continue aross parts of central and eastern North Carolina over the
   next few hours. Weather watch issuance can not be ruled out.

   DISCUSSION...Latest surface analysis shows a 1004 mb low over
   northeast Kentucky with a warm front extending east-southeastward
   from the low into the western Virginia and southern North Carolina.
   Surface dewpoints south of the front in southern North Carolina are
   in the 60s F and the RAP is analyzing moderate instability with
   MLCAPE in the 1000 to 1500 J/kg range. A supercell is ongoing in
   Hoke County, North Carolina which is located along the instability
   gradient near the warm front. This storm is being supported by a
   subtle shortwave trough evident on water vapor imagery and
   strengthening low-level flow. As the warm front lifts northward
   across eastern North Carolina over the next two to four hours, new
   storms may develop along the front. The environment is strongly
   sheared due to a 60 to 70 kt mid-level jet that is moving through
   the Carolinas. This combined with strong speed shear in the boundary
   layer and somewhat looped hodographs as is evident on the
   Charleston, South Carolina WSR-88D VWP will support a marginal
   tornado threat. Wind damage will also be possible as well.

   ..Broyles/Guyer.. 04/26/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...

   LAT...LON   34727882 34947919 35217931 35727919 36027891 36427827
               36517776 36587717 36547641 36407602 36087579 35647577
               35097635 34597742 34727882