Mesoscale Discussion 0480
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0230 PM CDT Mon Apr 27 2020

   Areas affected...portions of southwest Texas

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 271930Z - 272130Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...High-based thunderstorms capable of severe hail and wind
   are likely to develop along a sharpening dryline in southwest Texas
   this afternoon. A watch issuance is possible.

   DISCUSSION...A terrain induced thunderstorm is currently over
   eastern portions of the Davis Mountains and is slowly
   building/moving to the east-southeast. This could produce marginally
   severe hail and gusty outflow winds, which could pose threats to any
   wildfires in the area. Ahead of this thunderstorm, Cu are building
   near Fort Stockton along a sharpening dryline. Storms that develop
   are likely to be surface-based with surface temperatures in the low
   to mid 90s F, which along with increased convergence near the
   dryline should overcome CIN around 850 mb. These storms are also
   likely to be high-based with dewpoints in the 50s F and dry
   lower-levels. Effective bulk shear around 30 knots and steep
   mid-level lapse rates support severe hail potential. Severe winds
   are also possible given the deep, well-mixed boundary layer with
   DCAPE values in excess of 1400 J/kg per mesoanalysis. A couple of
   splitting supercells are likely, especially due to straight
   hodographs.

   ..Nauslar/Thompson.. 04/27/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...MAF...

   LAT...LON   31100368 31150323 31230292 31610271 31990234 32110210
               32100167 31870136 31530129 30950144 30010176 29770206
               29620276 29630325 30180359 30530391 30740401 31100368