Mesoscale Discussion 0481
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0633 PM CDT Mon Apr 27 2020

   Areas affected...Portions of Permian Basin

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 149...

   Valid 272333Z - 280130Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 149
   continues.

   SUMMARY...An isolated threat for strong/severe wind gusts and large
   hail will continue into the early evening. Activity along the Rio
   Grande may continue southeastward, but will encounter increasing
   MLCIN. An anticylonic supercell southeast of Midland may also
   continue northeast as it encounters marginally better shear and a
   modestly strengthening low-level jet. While local extensions of WW
   149 are possible, a new WW is not anticipated this evening.

   DISCUSSION...Threats for isolated strong/severe gusts and large hail
   continue in portions of WW 149. A cluster of thunderstorms within
   Terrell County continues to move southeastward, mostly across the
   international border. Southwest of Midland, a semi-organized
   anticyclonic supercell has continued to move to the northeast. This
   storm remains somewhat behind its outflow per KMAF radar imagery,
   but will be capable of strong/severe gusts given the steep low-level
   lapse rates. Isolated large hail will also be possible. 

   CAM guidance suggests that both areas of activity will continue for
   at least a few more hours. However, the strong capping in the
   vicinity of Del Rio would suggest that activity near the
   international border will struggle to continue, particularly given
   the weak forcing and marginal shear. It is more plausible that the
   left-moving supercell will continue so long as it does not get too
   far behind its own outflow. As it tracks northeast, it will
   encounter marginally better shear and moisture. Furthermore, a
   modest increase in the low-level jet this evening will also aid in
   storm sustenance. Activity will continue to be monitored for
   possible local extensions of WW 149. Currently, a new WW is not
   anticipated this evening.

   ..Wendt.. 04/27/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...MAF...

   LAT...LON   29810219 30260247 31540230 32350166 32620037 32129997
               31440034 30690094 29700102 29430107 29580145 29760206
               29810219