Mesoscale Discussion 0482
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1009 AM CDT Tue Apr 28 2020

   Areas affected...southeast Texas into western Louisiana

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 281509Z - 281745Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Sporadic severe wind or hail is possible over the next
   several hours in association with a cluster of storms near the
   Sabine River.

   DISCUSSION...A small MCS continues to propagate east/southeast
   across far eastern TX and now into western LA. Although 12Z
   soundings from SHV show only modest instability, the cold pool
   associated with the MCS is helping lift through the capping
   inversions. In addition, warm advection in the low levels and steep
   lapse rates aloft continue to favor elevated storms which in
   aggregate, may be contributing to the cold pool. 

   Surface analysis shows these storms are near a warm front in TX,
   with eastern parts of the complex just north of the front.
   Persistent southwest winds at 850 mb around 25-30 kt as well as
   heating will allow a gradual eastward shift to the warm front, and
   will maintain weak lift. Heating along with plentiful moisture will
   lead to strong instability later today, which may lead to
   strengthening storms and/or an expansion of the ongoing cluster. At
   least isolated damaging wind or hail will be possible, and trends
   will be monitored closely for any upscale growth.

   ..Jewell/Thompson.. 04/28/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV...HGX...

   LAT...LON   31739490 31849431 32049381 32349349 32549308 32539255
               32229215 31939189 31499165 31069162 30879164 30579241
               30579413 30649461 31109495 31499499 31739490