Mesoscale Discussion 0483
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1247 PM CDT Tue Apr 28 2020

   Areas affected...southeast Texas and southwestern Louisiana

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 281747Z - 281945Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Scattered to numerous thunderstorms will pose a risk for
   isolated downbursts and hail.  A WW issuance is not anticipated for
   this activity, however.

   DISCUSSION...Widespread, robust convection has developed across the
   region over the past hour or so.  These storms were in a weakly
   inhibited environment, with steep mid-level lapse rates (nearing
   8.5C/km) and warm/moist boundary layer conditions (80s F
   temperatures and upper 70s F dewpoints) resulting in very strong
   buoyancy - exceeding 3000 J/kg MLCAPE within the pre-convective
   airmass.  Storms also appear to be influenced by a weak mid-level
   wave passing just north of the region.  Weak shear profiles will
   result in mainly pulse-type storms exhitibing slow/erratic motions. 
   There's some hint in observations and CAMs that convection may
   organize along the leading edge of any resultant cold pool(s) and
   propagate along its leading edge.  This may result in a damaging
   wind-gust threat in addition to marginally severe hail in the
   strongest convection.  The overall disorganized nature of the
   convection precludes issuance of a Severe Thunderstorm Watch
   issuance at this time, though convective trends are being monitored.

   ..Cook/Lyons/Thompson.. 04/28/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD...CRP...EWX...

   LAT...LON   29749303 29859269 30239248 30839285 31089379 31209502
               31059620 30429704 29759731 29189723 28879665 28869596
               29189476 29789347 29749303